Rebuilding 'Liberated' Mosul Will Take Many Years and Billions of Dollars
May 5, 2017
Ahmed Aboulenein / Reuters & Patrick Cockburn / The Independent
It could take five years to rebuild the bombed-out Iraqi city of Mosul starting with replacement of destroyed water, electricity and fuel systems. But the Iraqi government lacks the billions of dollars needed to restore the devastated city. While the capture of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria has been presented as the death knell for ISIS, the rebel forces are simply withdrawng to the countryside. Meanwhile, the Iraqi and Syrian armies do not have enough troops to guarantee their long-term control over the "liberated" territory.
Five Years, Billions of Dollars
Needed to Rebuild Mosul: Officials
Ahmed Aboulenein / Reuters
MOSUL, Iraq (May 4, 2017) -- Mosul's wrecked roads, bridges and broader economy will take at least five years to repair and need billions of dollars of development that Iraq's government will struggle to afford, officials returning to the battle-scarred city said.
The airport, railway station and university were all destroyed in the long fight to dislodge Islamic State militants from their main Iraqi stronghold.
Iraqi government forces backed by a US-led coalition have now retaken the eastern half of the city -- letting regional councillors return for the first time in 2-1/2 years to survey the damage.
"After Mosul is fully liberated, we need a working plan to restore things to the way they were before 2014 when Islamic State took over," Noureldin Qablan, deputy chairman of the council covering the surrounding Nineveh province, told Reuters.
He sat back in his office in the heart of Mosul, the province's regional capital, an unremarkable building apart from its new concrete fortifications and the teams of armed guards surrounding it.
A gun lay on his desk, next to his phone and piles of paperwork.
Outside, bustling markets have sprung back into life on the eastern banks of the Tigris River. Over on the other side of the river, Islamic State fighters are holed in, defending the densely populated Old City with snipers and suicide bombers.
At the heart of their territory sits the medieval Grand al-Nuri Mosque and its famous leaning minaret, where Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared his caliphate in July 2014. Experts fear the fragile brick structure could still succumb to the fighting raging around it.
Iraq's army has said it expects to expel Islamic State from the rest of the city by May.
"WE ARE NOT GETTING ENOUGH SUPPORT"
The 34 Nineveh councillors, who have been meeting in other cities during the occupation, have already started drawing up plans to rebuild Mosul, though they are still were not sure where the money will come from, said Qablan.
For the first six months, local authorities would focus on restoring security, water, electricity and fuel, and on the return of those displaced by the war.
Under the plan, there would then be a two-year period of reconstruction and the initiation of a reconciliation process followed by 30 months focused on attracting investment and developing the economy.
Some of the early repair work could cost as little as $5,000 a house, Qablan said. But even that would strain budgets that he said were under-funded by the central government in Baghdad.
"Honestly, we are not getting enough support. What has been allocated to Nineveh in 2017 was 52 billion Iraqi dinars ($44.5 million) which is a very small sum for a province this size," Qablan said.
"In 2013 we were allocated 738 billion dinars, yet after all this destruction we get just 52. It is very hard to reach our goals with this sum, so we are counting on foreign grants." Council officials are in talks with the United Nations, international aid groups and friendly states, he said. Italy was already helping rebuild a hospital.
Outside on the eastern side of the river, foreign investment was already flowing back in, in the form of market stalls heaving with Turkish and Iranian fruit and vegetables, replacing the less plentiful Syrian produce that had dominated under Islamic State.
Tobacco shops, banned by the ultra-hardline Sunni Muslim group, have reopened. Dozens of men sipped coffee or tea inside The Golden Cafe, looking at their phones and surfing the web -- activities that Islamic State had limited to monitored Internet centers.
"We are happy and comfortable. Life is good," said one customer Emad, smoking hookah outside. "I feel out of this world."
Fall of Raqqa and Mosul Will Not Spell the End for ISIS
Patrick Cockburn / The Independent & The Unz Review
(May 3, 2017) -- When Lionel Messi scored a last minute winning goal for Barcelona against Real Madrid on 23 April, football fans in the Syrian coastal city of Tartous who had been watching the game on television rushed into the street to celebrate.
This turned out to be a mistake from their point of view because many of the jubilant fans were men of military age, whom the Syrian security forces promptly detained in order to find out if they were liable for military service. It is unknown how many were conscripted but, once in the army, they will have difficulty getting out and there is a high chance they will be killed or injured.
Military service and ways of avoiding it are staples of conversation in Syria where government, Kurds and insurgents are all looking for soldiers after six years of relentless war.
Casualties have been heavy with pro-government forces alone losing an estimated 112,000 dead since 2011 according to the pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. In theory, men can escape conscription if they are the only son of a family or are studying at university, but even then they are not entirely safe from being arbitrarily drafted.
The conscripts eat bad food and are poorly paid, earning around $50 a month, which gives them little option but to live off bribes mostly earned by letting people pass through their checkpoints. Iraqi and Syrian security officials say this is one reason why ISIS and al-Qaeda suicide bombers driving vehicles full of explosives are able to blow themselves up and cause horrific loss of life in the heart of supposedly well-protected cities.
"Women and children are vulnerable in this war but I feel more sorry for the young men who are in much greater danger," said a UN aid worker, who did not want her name published, working at the sprawling Hammam al-Alil camp for displaced persons south of Mosul. She said that, whether or not they had ever belonged to an armed group, the young men were always suspected of it.
She had just seen a dozen of them who had fled from Mosul being taken off for interrogation and vetting "and I have never seen more terrified people in my life". She added that they had every reason to be frightened because a few days previously she had seen two men from Mosul, unconscious and covered in blood, being taken to hospital on stretchers after a couple of hours' interrogation.
Paranoia runs deep in Syria and Iraq and people speak continually of "sleeper cells" established by ISIS that are waiting to emerge suddenly and slaughter their enemies. Despite these fears, security is generally very poor because of the saturation levels of corruption.
Checkpoints act as internal customs posts: the smaller ones mulct drivers of a packet of cigarettes or their small change, but the larger checkpoints are big business with a turnover of the equivalent of millions of pounds and dollars. Huge profits are kicked back to senior officers, politicians and parties who preside over the networks of rackets that strangle the Iraqi and Syrian economies.
Lorry drivers on the 165-mile route between Kirkuk and Baghdad were on strike in March, complaining that the main checkpoint outside Baghdad had raised its illegal fees to $1,500 per truck, which was three times the previous level.
"This money does not come from individual drivers, but from the owner of the goods he carries who passes on the extra cost to the consumer in Baghdad," said a broker called Ahmed who works as a freelance freight forwarder.
He explained that the drivers were on strike not because of the bribery, but because the increased delays at checkpoints that meant the Kirkuk-Baghdad round-trip, which used to take three days, was now taking fifteen.
The criminalization of society in Iraq and Syria during the long years of war is one reason why normal life does not return even when there is no fighting. On top of the corruption by local warlords and political bosses, the number of reliable combat soldiers on all sides is limited so military successes are never as decisive as claimed.
The Syrian army can only stage one offensive at a time and this makes it vulnerable on other fronts. Just as it was capturing East Aleppo in December 2016 after a long siege, it lost Palmyra to ISIS for a second time and has had to fight off an ISIS attack on Deir Ezzor, the largest city in eastern Syria. In Damascus, a surprise insurgent assault, using tunnels from their stronghold in Eastern Ghouta, came close to storming the centre of the capital.
The capture of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria is often presented as the death knell for ISIS, but its demise is by no means so certain. The loss of the two cities means that the self-declared Caliphate will be shrunken and lose much of its population. But prior to its explosive advances in 2014, when it captured much of western Iraq and eastern Syria, it was a skilled and experienced guerrilla movement.
Unable to stand against the firepower of an enemy in total control of the air, there are signs that it is moving many of its fighters and officials out of Mosul and Raqqa to rural areas where they can hide more easily.
The round-up of football fans in Tartous underlines the shortage of soldiers facing the Syrian government. It has too few troops to occupy and hold territory seized from ISIS and al-Qaeda. Iraq has a similar problem because, although many men theoretically belong to its security forces, the real number of combat troops is much smaller.
Most of the soldiers one sees beside the road in Iraq and Syria belong to "checkpoint armies" who exploit the civilian population but are not planning to fight anybody.
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