Water Shortages Are Coming. It's Time for Us to Act
March 15, 2015 Matt Cartwright and Michael Shank / The Guardian & Jay Famiglietti, Op-Ed / The Los Angeles Times
America is entering a new phase of "peak water," the point at which freshwater is being consumed faster than it is replenished. Already, 40 state water managers expect water shortages to over the next 10 years. Over 80% of continental US is abnormally dry. With 2014 the hottest year on record, we can expect even drier conditions to become more common. The water wars being waged in the Southeast -- as Florida, Georgia, and Alabama fight over watersheds and water flows -- are a prime example.
Water Shortages Are Coming.
It's Time for Us to Act Matt Cartwright and Michael Shank / The Guardian
(March 12, 2015) -- Americans take water for granted. It's a resource that people assume will always be accessible, available, and consumable. For most people in this country, whether they're at a public drinking fountain, a restaurant or at home, water is a commodity considered to be at our constant beck and call -- but for how much longer?
America's water supply is in crisis and, if we don't act now, we face an imperiled future. The latest news last week, that California faces its fourth year of drought, illustrates this point powerfully.
California is witnessing year-on-year drought conditions with decreasing precipitation and increasing heat. This is a potential death knell for fisheries, the agricultural industry, and municipal water supplies. Other states may soon face similar conditions.
America is entering a new phase of "peak water," the point at which freshwater is being consumed faster than it is replenished. Already, 40 state water managers expect water shortages to occur in their states over the next 10 years.
Nearly one in 10 watersheds, an area of land where water drains into one place, are stressed by the impact of arid conditions. Over 80% of continental US is abnormally dry and, with 2014 going down as the hottest year on record, we can expect even drier conditions to become more common.
These are serious problems for America, which has the highest per capita water use in the world. With a growing population consuming trillions of gallons of fresh water every year across our 160,000 public water systems, our lives, our economies, and our industries are dependent on our water supply.
Anything that undermines this delicate balance will destabilize our communities and our economies quickly. The water wars being waged in the Southeast -- as Florida, Georgia, and Alabama fight over watersheds and water flows -- are a prime example.
Expect more of this.
While water managers might be focused on upgrading our dilapidated water infrastructure (American Society of Civil Engineers gave it a D), which will cost several trillion dollars in repairs over the next 20 years, we need to make sure there's water to flow through that infrastructure.
Many states and federal agencies are preparing to deal with future water scarcity, especially as demand for water is estimated to grow by more than 40% over the next 35 years.
States are assessing current water reserves, developing drought preparedness plans, and taking conservation actions. Federal agencies have executed many of the same actions, in addition to supporting state water management efforts. But more is needed.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that increased collaboration between federal, state, and local water authorities would strengthen state water management activities. At the moment, progress is hindered by too many inputs from, and a lack of coordination between, these various bodies.
We should take heed.
The Cartwright Peak Water Resolution has been introduced in the House of Representatives in response to the GAO report. It calls for prioritizing the National Water Availability and Use Assessment program, provisioned in the Secure Water Act, with the same sense of urgency that characterized our mission to put a man on the moon.
In order to facilitate collaboration between federal and state authorities, we must collect and provide the most current information on water availability and use as possible, and we must do so now. The possibility that we are approaching the point of peak water is real and demands quick action.
We cannot overstate the urgency of this task. Ensuring that our children have access to the same abundance of water that our country has enjoyed throughout its history is our responsibility. The time to do so is now, before another devastating drought descends on America.
(March 12, 2015) -- Given the historic low temperatures and snowfalls that pummeled the eastern US this winter, it might be easy to overlook how devastating California's winter was as well.
As our “wet” season draws to a close, it is clear that the paltry rain and snowfall have done almost nothing to alleviate epic drought conditions.
January was the driest in California since record-keeping began in 1895. Groundwater and snowpack levels are at all-time lows. We're not just up a creek without a paddle in California, we're losing the creek too.
Data from NASA satellites show that the total amount of water stored in the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins -- that is, all of the snow, river and reservoir water, water in soils and groundwater combined -- was 34 million acre-feet below normal in 2014. That loss is nearly 1.5 times the capacity of Lake Mead, America's largest reservoir.
Statewide, we've been dropping more than 12 million acre-feet of total water yearly since 2011. Roughly two-thirds of these losses are attributable to groundwater pumping for agricultural irrigation in the Central Valley.
Farmers have little choice but to pump more groundwater during droughts, especially when their surface water allocations have been slashed 80% to 100%. But these pumping rates are excessive and unsustainable. Wells are running dry. In some areas of the Central Valley, the land is sinking by one foot or more per year.
As difficult as it may be to face, the simple fact is that California is running out of water -- and the problem started before our current drought. NASA data reveal that total water storage in California has been in steady decline since at least 2002, when satellite-based monitoring began, although groundwater depletion has been going on since the early 20th century.
Right now the state has only about one year of water supply left in its reservoirs, and our strategic backup supply, groundwater, is rapidly disappearing. California has no contingency plan for a persistent drought like this one (let alone a 20-plus-year mega-drought), except, apparently, staying in emergency mode and praying for rain.
In short, we have no paddle to navigate this crisis.
Several steps need be taken right now. First, immediate mandatory water rationing should be authorized across all of the state's water sectors, from domestic and municipal through agricultural and industrial.
The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California is already considering water rationing by the summer unless conditions improve. There is no need for the rest of the state to hesitate. The public is ready. A recent Field Poll showed that 94% of Californians surveyed believe that the drought is serious, and that one-third support mandatory rationing.
Second, the implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 should be accelerated. The law requires the formation of numerous, regional groundwater sustainability agencies by 2017.
Then each agency must adopt a plan by 2022 and “achieve sustainability” 20 years after that. At that pace, it will be nearly 30 years before we even know what is working. By then, there may be no groundwater left to sustain.
Third, the state needs a task force of thought leaders that starts, right now, brainstorming to lay the groundwork for long-term water management strategies. Although several state task forces have been formed in response to the drought, none is focused on solving the long-term needs of a drought-prone, perennially water-stressed California.
Our state's water management is complex, but the technology and expertise exist to handle this harrowing future. It will require major changes in policy and infrastructure that could take decades to identify and act upon. Today, not tomorrow, is the time to begin.
Finally, the public must take ownership of this issue. This crisis belongs to all of us -- not just to a handful of decision-makers. Water is our most important, commonly owned resource, but the public remains detached from discussions and decisions.
This process works just fine when water is in abundance. In times of crisis, however, we must demand that planning for California's water security be an honest, transparent and forward-looking process. Most important, we must make sure that there is in fact a plan.
Call me old-fashioned, but I'd like to live in a state that has a paddle so that it might also still have a creek. Jay Famiglietti is the senior water scientist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech and a professor of Earth system science at UC Irvine.
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