Nancy Pelosi’s Coming Taiwan Visit
May Trigger a War with China
Mike Wong / Veterans for Peace
(July 26, 2022) — Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s announced plans to visit Taiwan in August risks triggering a war with China. Starting with President Richard Nixon’s visit to China and the resulting Shanghai Communique, for fifty years, the United States, China, the government of Taiwan, an overwhelming majority of the world’s nations, and the United Nations have all officially agreed that there is only “One China,” that Taiwan island is a province of China, and that the issues between them should be settled by the Chinese themselves.
This has been the bedrock foundation of peace between the US, Taiwan, and mainland China all these decades.
This “One China policy” would be blatantly violated by the visit of such a high profile American official such as Pelosi, who is third in the line of succession to the presidency of the United States. Both the United States and China recognize the seriousness of this proposed trip; the US is talking about moving aircraft carriers to the region to provide security, and Chinese sources are talking about having China’s own aircraft escort Pelosi’s plane.
The US and Chinese militaries have been holding rival military exercises and playing games of “chicken” with each other for years, but now there are warnings from prominent persons in both nations that this trip risks a serious and possibly deadly clash.
Chinese spokesman Zhao Lijian said China was “seriously prepared” and “If the US side is bent on going its own way, China will take strong measures to resolutely respond and counteract…. The United States should be held responsible for any serious consequences.”
A former top Obama White House China expert, Evan Medeiros, recently said, “The Taiwan issue… could spark war—including nuclear war—between the two largest economies in the world.” Pelosi herself said, “… maybe the (US) military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese.”
At the same time, several key pieces in Asia have fallen into place for America to start a war there. President Yoon Suk-yeol was recently elected the new president of South Korea (by a thin margin and almost certainly with US and Korean CIA involvement), and he is a far right crazy of the John Bolton mode. Shinzo Abe, the immediate past prime minister of Japan was just assassinated, becoming a martyr whose death only strengthens his right wing party’s (the LDP) hand.
They now have the votes, for the first time, to change Japan’s peace constitution and go to war. And President Tsai is a right-winger in Taiwan who dances to America’s tune. Both the new leaders of Japan and South Korea are calling for their countries to participate in war if it should break out over Taiwan. And now the US has gotten NATO to name China as a threat and commit to support action against China.
The only piece not in place for war is Taiwan itself; polls show the majority of people just want to maintain the status quo, which was working for both sides, the mainland and Taiwan. Prior to the pandemic, trade and tourism both ways had been increasing continuously, and both sides benefited without either side having to give up anything.
It was win-win and most people on both sides, and the mainland CPC government, would like to keep it that way. Also, Taiwan’s military is not ready for war, they have a draft but it only requires four months of service, then they just go into the reserve, which doesn’t even conduct regular training.
Retired San Francisco judge Julie Tang, originally from Hong Kong and a cofounder of Pivot To Peace (https://peacepivot.org/ ) reported: “The loudest voice of opposition to her Taiwan trip is from Taiwan’s independent press. They are outraged. These folks understand how devastating it may mean to Taiwan.”
But internal conditions in Taiwan are not likely to change in the foreseeable future, so this is as good as it gets for the US, if war is the goal. Biden, Brinken, Nuland, and company can’t get it any better. They didn’t learn from their defeat in Afghanistan, seem blind to their impending disaster in Ukraine, and they continue to press on China. So while a war is not certain, the possibility of it is increasing.
At the same time, the White House is wavering on Pelosi’s visit, and different voices from the establishment are saying conflicting things and giving conflicting signals.
With the US establishment divided, this is a critical moment in which a large peace movement push for peace — peaceful demonstrations at congressional offices and the White House, letters to editors of local newspapers, and other peace actions — may make a critical difference in tipping the balance towards peace rather than a devastating, possibly nuclear war. I urge all peace organizations and leaders to step boldly forward at this critical moment in time. Now is the time to take action to pull our country and our world back from the blink of war.
Resources for More Information:
- China threatens US over Pelosi trip to Taiwan – CNBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3vZbvCvRxY
- China confirms warnings to US on Pelosi’s possible Taiwan visit – Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-confirms-warnings-us-pelosis-possible-taiwan-visit-2022-07-25/
- US considers deploying carriers to support House speaker’s Taiwan trip – Washington Post – World Socialist Web Site: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/07/25/ooce-j25.html
- An American War Over Taiwan? – Pivot To Peace: https://peacepivot.org/an-american-war-over-taiwan-island/
- Breakthrough News: Prof. Ken Hammond Discusses Pelosi’s Provocation of China over Taiwan: https://peacepivot.org/breakthrough-news-prof-ken-hammond-discusses-pelosis-provocation-of-china-over-taiwan/
- Bottom line on Taiwan question will be shaped through fight with US: Chinese scholar: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271327.shtml
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Pelosi’s Appearance in Taiwan Could Heighten Fear of US Meddling in China-Taiwan Affairs
(July 28, 2022) — The Committee for a Sane US-China Policy calls on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Pelosi to help prevent a US-China military crisis by postponing her proposed trip to Taiwan until after the upcoming Chinese Communist Party (CCP) gathering at the coastal resort of Beidaihe.
Chinese officials have indicated that by signifying enhanced US ties with Taiwan, a visit by Pelosi to the island at this time would represent a significant affront to US-China relations and so would invite an unspecified Chinese military response. The Chinese leadership and a large segment of the population view Taiwan as a breakaway province of China and consider high-profile visits to the island by US leaders as interference in the country’s internal affairs.
This is a sensitive moment for the Chinese leadership, as President Xi Jinping is expected to seek leadership support for an unprecedented third five-year term as national president and party secretary in advance of the CCP Congress this fall. A provocative US move at this time — such as a visit to Taiwan by Pelosi — could be viewed by party leaders as an insult to Xi and so force him to undertake a strong countermove.
Some analysts have suggested that this could involve overflights of Taiwan by Chinese military aircraft, forcing Taiwan to scramble its own jets and thereby risking a midair collision or armed encounter between the two sides. This, in turn, has led US military officials to warn Speaker Pelosi of the potential for a military crisis arising from her visit, and have encouraged her to cancel or delay her proposed visit.
“We acknowledge that Speaker Pelosi has the right to travel to Taiwan and express her personal views about US-Taiwan relations, but we also believe that she has a responsibility to help maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait area,” said Michael Klare, Co-Chair of the Committee for a Sane US-China Policy.
“Her appearance in Taiwan could heighten Chinese fears of US meddling in China-Taiwan affairs and so invite a greater Chinese inclination to resolve the dispute through military rather than peaceful means,” Klare continued. “Accordingly, we urge her to reconsider the wisdom of visiting Taiwan altogether or to postpone her trip until tensions in the region have diminished and US military officials can assure her — and the rest of us — that such a visit will not precipitate a military crisis.”
The Committee for a Sane US-China Policy was established in 2020 to help reduce the risk of a US-China conflict by seeking peaceful, mutually-beneficial solutions to conflictive issues in US-China relations.