Is Someone Pushing to Bomb Iran to Win a Bet?
Roberet Reich / Inequality Media Civic Action

(April 10, 2026) — War is not a betting game — but Polymarket is making it one.

As the tragedy of war began unfolding in Iran with thousands of people killed, including over 100 young children at a girl’s elementary school, certain traders were cashing in.

Prediction market platforms like Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcomes of everything, from awards shows to the weather to world events — including the war on Iran. Recent bets include:

• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
• Will U.S. forces enter Iran by March 7?
• Will Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

One Polymarket contract — “Will the U.S. strike Iran?” — swelled to a shocking $529 million. Six anonymous accounts, most created just 24 hours before the attack, made over $1.2 million by betting that bombs would fall on February 28. In any other context, transactions like these would trigger an immediate insider trading investigation.

But Trump’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is supposed to regulate prediction markets, hasn’t lifted a finger to investigate the suspicious trades. In the absence of meaningful government regulation, we have to go straight to the source.

Send a direct message to Polymarket’s CEO, demanding they remove and prohibit all bets on war, which could alter outcomes or reward those making critical decisions.

This goes beyond ordinary corruption. When administration insiders can place bets on outcomes they themselves control — troop movements, strike authorizations, diplomatic collapses — the financial incentive to cause those outcomes becomes enormous.

Billions of American tax dollars and thousands of human lives could be influenced not by strategy or national interest, but by the potential to make a killing on a prediction market. Allowing people to profit from speculation on war doesn’t just cheapen human suffering. It creates a financial incentive to prolong and escalate it.

Congress is moving to stop this corrupt practice — but there’s something we can do right now. Companies can’t stomach bad PR, and public pressure works. Tell Polymarket’s CEO directly: profiting from war and violence is a moral catastrophe, and it’s a terrible look for your company.

Tell Polymarket’s CEO: When it comes to war, all bets are OFF.

Thank you for stepping in to prevent this immoral practice.