Trump’s $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Request:
Unhinged, Unaffordable, and Unnecessary
Steven Kosiak / Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Overview
(April 14, 2026) — The Trump administration’s 2027 budget request, submitted on April 3, calls for funding defense at $1.5 trillion. It is difficult to overstate just how massive an increase in defense spending this would represent — or how unhinged it seems to be from reality and sober policymaking.
The 2026 defense budget already included a $150 billion increase from 2025. The latest request would involve a further increase of some $450 billion, marking an increase in “real” terms (i.e., inflation-adjusted) of 40 percent from 2026, and a 58 percent increase from 2025. Moreover, it would establish a defense budget that is some 90 percent higher — again, in real terms — than both the peak of the Cold War and the average base defense budget of the past 25 years (see Figure 1). It is also important to understand that the administration’s request — like all base budget requests — is intended only to cover the Pentagon’s peacetime manning, operating, and modernization costs. It is in addition that the administration plans to request a further $200 billion to cover Iran war costs.
This note explores the administration’s proposal by focusing on four specific questions:
- What exactly is the administration proposing?
- How would this budget compare to the military spending of both partners and potential adversaries?
- How would this budget compare to the estimated cost of sustaining recent US defense plans?
- How would maintaining such a high level of spending impact the federal debt?
Key findings from this brief analysis are:
- Implementing the proposed increase in defense spending, and sustaining it over the long term, would result in a major increase in the federal debt, pushing it up to as much as 275 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP, by 2056.
- The United States already spends far more on its military than does China or Russia, and the US also benefits from substantial spending by its allies.
- Nothing remotely as high as the proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget is needed to cover the cost of recent defense plans, including that from the last year of President Donald Trump’s first term.
Discussion
Question 1: What Exactly Is the Administration Proposing?
The Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion request for defense is composed of two parts. The first consists of $1.15 trillion in discretionary funding to be provided as part of the regular annual appropriations process (the manner in which defense budgets have traditionally been funded).
The second part includes $350 billion in mandatory spending to be provided through another reconciliation bill. Traditionally used as a mechanism to expedite the enactment of revenue or entitlement changes, Republicans used reconciliation legislation — last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, or OBBBA — to provide $155 billion in additional defense spending. This year’s request would essentially double down on that approach.
The longer-term plan released by the administration with the 2027 budget request projects Pentagon funding falling back to $1.3 trillion in 2028, with no additional mandatory spending projected. But history strongly suggests that, once spending levels for defense (or most other areas, for that matter) are increased and plans expanded, administrations do not suddenly propose reductions. And certainly the pattern that the Trump administration, in particular, has shown for these past two fiscal years — including a $150 billion defense increase for 2026, a proposed $450 billion defense increase in 2027, and a $200 billion supplemental wartime request — may be taken to suggest that this administration is, if anything, more likely to further increase defense spending beyond $1.5 trillion rather than to preside over some future reduction in spending.
Further Reading
Read the complete report online at: https://quincyinst.org/research/trumps-1-5-trillion-defense-budget-request-unhinged-unaffordable-and-unnecessary/
